TRENDS & PREDICTIONS
SITES
Gary North's Y2K Links and Forums
Links to numerous sites and forums with Year 2000 bug information. According to the site creator (Gary North) the Y2K problem will be unstoppable and catastrophic.
The Halloween Documents
The annotated text of three internal Microsoft memos regarding the threat of open source software in general, and Linux in particular, to Microsoft and commercial software.
The Internet Index Home Page (from Open Market)
Facts and statistics about the Internet, modeled after Harper's Index.
Net Loss: Government, Technology and the Political Economy of Community in the Age of the Internet
An examination of how government, technology, and regional entities interact in more than just economic terms. Uses Silicon Valley as a case study.
Nua Internet Surveys
Statistics and reports on various aspects of the Internet.
Special Reports - The Decade in Computing
CNET's special report on the visionaries, products, trends, and company success stories that shaped computing in the 1990s.
Windows XP May Spark Ultimate Battle to Own the Net
CNET's examination of Microsoft's bid to dominate the Internet and revolutionize the hardware and software industries with Windows XP's features.
ARTICLES
An information architect mulls over the dot-com crash, and posits that companies seeking speed at the cost of a good, solid website foundation got what they should have expected. (1/12/2001 at Argus Center for Information Architecture)
10 Tech Trends to Bet On
Technology trends that Fortune Magazine thinks should inform your investment decisions: cash-poor consumers, voice technology, privacy, eBay, storage, wireless email, and more. (3/19/2001 at Fortune)
2005 THE LONG VIEW
Internet World asked 20 "experts" to predict the future of their part of the Internet - from industry luminaries to privacy activists and engineers. (1/1/2000 at Internet World)
5 Habits of Highly Effective Revolution
The so-called new economy seems to be following the same stages that past technological revolutions have: experimentation, capitalization, management, hypercompetition, and consolidation. (2/7/2000 at Forbes)
The 70 Percent Solution
Cringely's predictions for 2002: XML, rich media, and security at the forefront. (1/3/2002 at PBS)
After the Fall
When the Internet Economy bubble bursts, the sites that save time and provide unneccessary services may be the first to go, as customers find themselves with less money and more time. (11/5/1999 at The Industry Standard)
All I Want for Christmas Is ... an E-mail Program That Works
Rather than predictions for 2001, Scott Rosenberg gives his wishlist: good industrial-strength email programs, quick-startup computers, better typefaces, real user-oriented browser innovations, and readable tech industry magazines. (12/20/2000 at Salon.com)
Analysis: 20 Factors That Will Change PCs in 2002
20 technology trends that analysts say will drive computing in 2002: AFC hard-drives, super-fast palmtops, OLED screens replacing LCDs, P2P, fuel cells, and more. (12/25/2001 at CNN)
Analyzing The Analysts: The Knowledge Merchants
An analysis of the technology analyst business - why IT executives turn to analysts for information, and what those analysts have to provide. (11/15/1999 at Information Week)
As Boldest E-Commerce Ventures Fall, Modest Dreamers Fly On
As the dust clears, it looks like those Internet companies that were most modest in their aims, or paralleled offline businesses most closely, are the ones that have succeeded. (12/13/2000 at The New York Times)
Back to Normal
According to analyst reports and market statistics, the terrorist attacks in early November won't have a big impact on online spending in coming months. (11/5/2001 at NUA Internet Surveys)
Banking on Success
Use of online banking in the U.S. and Europe is increasing fairly rapidly, despite consumer fears about safety of information online. (10/14/2002 at NUA Internet Surveys)
Bubble, Bubble, Dot-Com Trouble?
Comparisons between the current Internet-investing craze, Tulip mania, and the South Sea Bubble of the 1720s. (3/16/2000 at Fox News)
The Business Of Business Is Net's Future
"the market for 'business-to-business' (B2B) applications of the Internet will easily dwarf the market for retailing, which will be perceived as the valuable laboratory for the much greater enterprise." (1/2/2000 at The Washington Post)
Caught in a .NET
Why did Microsoft, in its agreement with the DOJ, agree to stop several well-defined monopolistic practices for 5 years? One theory: because with .NET, it will maintain and expand its monopoly. (11/8/2001 at PBS)
Change Agents
ZDNet's predictions for the year 2001: chaos continues as established entertainment companies fight the effects of the Net; rich-media ads and deployment of content to handheld devices; Congress confronts Net taxes and privacy; and more. (1/7/2001 at ZDNet Developer)
The Coming "Open Monopoly" in Software
A prediction: Microsoft's monopoly will be replaced by the monopoly of open-source software; as a result, barriers to entry into software arenas - for both big players and small - will disappear. (10/24/2001 at News.com)
Coming Of Age
Workers at Internet companies are becoming less enamored of stock options and atmospheres of enforced fun, and opting for more-structured, stable environments at work. (9/11/2000 at ZDNet)
Computers Pass Their Date With Destiny
Y2K problems across the world were few and far between. There's been no catastrophic collapse of technology infrastructure, but officials say they'll be vigilant over the next month, as delayed effects may surface. (1/1/2000 at The Washington Post)
Content Industry Up For Grabs
Speakers at the Myers Forum for Interactive Television Development said that the TV industry is not ready for the digital world, because it lacks ways to license and distribute content easily. (2/1/2000 at TechWeb)
Cover Your Basics
A look at three important dates in the year 2000, that illustrate the big trends of the year: "the fundamentals are back" [on the stock market]; "bigger is better" [company size]; and "the first real Net-driven change in politics." (12/18/2000 at The Industry Standard)
David Plotnikoff: Information Highway Emerges With 2000
Predictions for 2000: most Internet stocks will continue to do well, while a few deflate slowly; bandwidth for most people will still be inadequate; the U.S. government will regulate online privacy; the digital divide will persist; and more. (1/6/2000 at Dallas Morning News)
The Death Of Portals
Consumer infomediaries - the ultimate in user personalization - are set to take the place of portals, according to the author. (10/28/1999 at ClickZ Network)
DEN, Boo: R.I.P.
Within a week of each other, two high-profile sites - Boo.com (retailer) and DEN (entertainment site) - have "crashed and burned." But the lesson to learn is about a failure to accomodate site visitors, not a failure of the Net economy. (5/19/2000 at Salon.com)
Divining the Future of Law and Technology
In the Carl S. Kaplan's last Cyber Law column, he asks various cyberlaw luminaries to predict the major issues that will crop up in 2002. Larry Lessig, Cass Sunstein, and others reply. (1/11/2002 at The New York Times)
Dot-Com Time Bomb on Madison Avenue
Dot-Coms are spending millions on advertising, hoping to build brands for the holiday shopping season. What happens when brand-building doesn't translate into actual profit? (11/16/1999 at Fortune)
E-Commerce Enters the Age of Reason
The Better Business Bureau's BBBOnline Reliability Seal, Napster's planned use of file fingerprinting, and the federal government's moves to protect privacy are signs that ecommerce is maturing. (4/26/2001 at ECommerce Times)
The End of the End Is Nigh
A number of Y2K doomsayers say that despite the lack of Y2K bug disruptions on January 1st, we should expect disaster later in the year. (1/4/2000 at Wired News)
"Europe Will Be More Like Silicon Alley than Silicon Valley"
Charles Leadbeater, adviser to the British government on the Net economy, believes Europe will provide more medium-size international technology companies than the up-from-nothing startups Silicon Valley has produced. (3/9/2000 at Business Week)
The Everywhere Web
A long, wide-ranging set of articles dealing with the future of the Internet - for the next year, and for the next 25 years. (1/10/2000 at ZDNet)
Forget About 2000 . . .Welcome to The Year Six
5 predictions for Internet business in the year 2000. Etailers who lose money will downsize, crash, and burn; web entertainment and wireless access take off; ASPs make it big; and "we all become venture capitalists." (1/2/2000 at @NY)
Fortunetelling
Wall Street loves Forester Research, technology/business research firm and forecaster, though their (and other forecasting companies') predictions tend to be wrong. (8/2/2000 at The Boston Globe)
Freebies Aren't Forever
When Pyra Labs asked for donations to buy new servers to run their free weblog service, Blogger, users responded with over $10,000 within a week; whether this is a valid way to run a business, or keep a site afloat, remains to be seen. (1/12/2001 at Fortune)
From Each According to His IPO
Like the young communists of the early Soviet Union, the dot-communists of Silicon Valley, who dedicated their lives to an economic revolution, are disillusioned in the wake of the recent industry purges. (4/25/2001 at Salon.com)
Future Bright for Digital Cash - Report
This report from the Aberdeen Group suggests that micropayments - payments of digital cash under $10 - will pick up significantly in the next few years. (11/5/1999 at Aberdeen Group)
Future State
In his book "The Rise of the Virtual State," Richard Rosecrance suggests that the world's nations are dividing into two equally important camps: "head" states focusing on planning and design, and "body" states focusing on production and manufacturing. (1/17/2000 at The Industry Standard)
Go Global or Bust
With the rate of increase of the U.S. Net population flattening, successful companies will look for growth opportunities in countries where economic inefficiencies can be eradicated profitably, and the Net population is still skyrocketing. (3/8/2000 at Business 2.0)
Going Out of Dot Commission?
Many etailers are facing huge downturns in stock price and no prospect for profit in the near future; as a result, many are finding it harder to retain good employees. (4/17/2000 at Wired News)
Good News for 2002
Predictions for 2002: a much better year than 2001; more consumer and business activity online; and more broadband and wireless penetration. (1/21/2002 at NUA Internet Surveys)
Got It?
The success or failure of many Internet businesses was built not on whether management and workers "got it," but whether they could convince everyone else that they "got it." (9/15/2000 at Forbes)
Greg's Crystal Ball
Predictions for 2001: Microsoft wins its appeal and settles; Bluetooth takes off, as do wireless email and web-surfing via phone; music videos and movies will gain in popularity online; digital property rights software takes off; and more. (12/27/2001 at CANOE)
Has the Internet Peaked?
The Internet is improving slowly now; changes are incremental, rather than ground-breaking. The Net as it is today may be the Net we have for the next decade. (12/14/2000 at ZDNet)
High-Tech Anxiety Hits Silicon Valley
In Silicon Valley, they're waiting for the Internet bubble to burst. Yes, the Internet will change the world; yes, lots of people will make money; but valuations are getting ridiculous, and the smart people have made their fortune and cashed out. (12/25/1999 at The Washington Post)
Hits and Misses of 2000 in Europe
Failed Internet companies, third-generation wireless license sales, and Short Messaging Services (SMS) are among the major trends in Europe's technology industry of 2000. (12/27/2000 at InternetNews.com)
Ideas to Watch
20 Internet "experts" give short opinions on Internet Economy trends. (1/17/2000 at The Industry Standard)
In 2000, the Net Goes Mainstream
Prognosticators say the mainstreaming of the Internet will be the biggest news of 2000. More women are coming online, as well as people with lower incomes than those traditionally drawn to this still-expensive medium. (12/28/1999 at ZDNet)
In Search of the Webby Worthy
According to researchers at IBM's Almaden Research Center, the Web is shaped like a bow tie: a set of popular, well-connected sites in the center, and less-connected sites pointed in to the core from the sides. (7/18/2001 at Wired News)
Internet Companies Shift Strategies to Survive
Another story about the failing Internet companies, this one focused on the Washington, DC area. (12/27/2000 at The Washington Post)
Internet Fuels Stunning First-Half Boom in Silicon Valley
In the first 6 months of 2000, the top 150 Silicon Valley companies increased sales 33 percent, and profits 83 percent. (9/18/2000 at Mercury Center)
Investing in the Web
An interview with Guy Kawasaki, chairman and CEO of garage.com, regarding investing in web businesses and the dangers that brick-and-mortars face from fresh young startups. (12/1/1999 at CIO.com)
Investors Snub Web Content Providers
As investors have scooped up stock in ecommerce and business-to-business web companies, content providers like TheStreet.com, Salon.com, and MarketWatch.com have seen big declines in stock price this year. (12/28/1999 at News.com)
Is Technology or Content King?
At Davos, some of the biggest names in the media business - Bill Gates, Steve Case, and Sumner Redstone - disagreed on where the Internet's future lies: technology, ubiquity, or content, respectively. (1/31/2000 at ZDNet)
Knowing the Rules: A conversation with Hal Varian
An interview in which Hal Varian, co-author of Information Rules; A Strategic Guide to the Information Economy,, talks about the information economy - its historical predecessors, and how it's affected by pricing and networks. (1/1/2000 at Mappa Mundi)
Livewire: the Net Grows Up
The year 2000 in review: B-to-B failed to cut out the middleman; dot-com advertising, online and off, fell; people wanted multimedia, but had to get by with words and music. (12/27/2000 at Excite News)
A Look at the Web Development World Ahead
Predictions for the next generation of web-building. HTML loses importance as dynamic, interactive sites become more important; we continue to have browser compatibility problems; and XML helps to save us from the troubles ahead. (1/10/2000 at WDVL)
Losing Their Cool
From California to New York, it's no longer quite as cool to work for a dotcom; and the companies themselves are becoming more mainstream. (12/18/2000 at The Industry Standard)
Media Unwraps a Present Early: E-Commerce Angles
Links to, and commentary on, media coverage of online retailers gearing up for the 1999 holiday sales season. (11/29/1999 at The Industry Standard)
Microsoft, Mahir and Money, Money, Money
Salon's review of the top technology stories of 1999. Included: Microsoft monopoly, open-source fever, stock market fever, Mahir mania, iMacs, and Y2K fears. (12/15/1999 at Salon.com)
Net Heavyweights Launch Net Think Tank
Esther Dyson, Vint Cerf, and other Net luminaries are forming a Net think tank to perform research and projections without hype. (11/9/1999 at ZDNet)
The Net Is Not Good Enough
In his farewell column, Don Willmott talks about the Net's shortcomings - and how the eventually robust system we'll have will make the pains of today worth it. (12/29/1999 at ZDNet)
Netting Web customers
An interview with Mary Modahl, author of "Now or Never: How Companies Must Change Today to Win the Battle for Internet Consumers," about the demographics of Internet users and what companies are going to succeed. (1/18/2000 at CNNfn)
New Economy's Unnatural Resources
A look at "unnatural resources" - technological and economic changes - taking place in parallel to Internet and computer development: mobile networks, biotechnology, and post-Cold War globalization. (12/18/2000 at Business 2.0)
Newspaper Ding the Web
As it happened with toll-free 1-800 numbers, so it's happening with URLs: many newspapers are charging advertisers much higher rates when they include a web address in a classified ad. (12/3/1999 at Wired News)
The Next Revolution
An interview with Michael Lewis, about the 14-year-old boys who are making waves on the Internet as experts in "their" fields. (8/7/2001 at Fast Company)
The Next Waves of Electronic Commerce
As old-line companies move online, their business practices will adapt to the networked environment, where information flows quickly, and more cheaply, than offline; and that's where the Net revolution kicks in. (12/19/1999 at The New York Times)
The Nude Economy
Though Internet company stock valuations are too high, we shouldn't ignore the very real cost-saving effects the Internet has had on global business. (4/3/2000 at NUA Internet Surveys)
Old Dogs Can Learn New Tricks
A year ago, everyone thought first-mover advantage and flexibility would help Net startups triumph over any old-economy newcomers to the Internet; a year later, bricks-and-mortar establishments have the advantage. (10/6/2000 at The Boston Globe)
Online Consumers Fearful Of Privacy Violations
A Forrester Research press release states that in a recent study, almost 90% of respondents wanted to be able to control the data they've given away after providing it to someone online. (10/27/1999 at Forrester Research, Inc.)
Online Retail Revenue Up 300 Percent - Survey - Update
A shop.org survey says holiday-season online sales this year increased 300% over last year. The original report is available at shop.org. (12/29/1999 at CNNfn)
The Paperless Office? Not by a Long Shot
Despite predictions to the contrary, sales of paper have continued to climb through the computer revolution. (4/21/2001 at The New York Times)
PC Makers Hit Speed Bumps; Being Faster May Not Matter
As consumers and businesses find fewer reasons to buy new computers, technology firms look to the Third World and non-PC tech devices as sales opportunities. (9/30/2002 at The New York Times)
The Pink Slips Keep Coming
On the heels of turmoil for tech stocks, a number of high-profile web companies announced layoffs, including AltaVista, Quepasa.com, and Pixelon. (5/15/2000 at The Industry Standard)
Piracy Panic
People pirate music, and movies, not to save money, but for convenience; if music could be bought over the Net, and first-run movies could be downloaded for a price, the entertainment industries could see huge profits. (11/15/1999 at Forbes)
Predictions 2000: How'd I Do?
Columnist Charles Cooper of ZDNet looks back on his predictions for the year 2000, and runs down where he was right (no Net taxes, stock market crash) and wrong (publishing industry completely changes, "Microsoft sues for peace"). (12/18/2000 at ZDNet)
Record Dot-com CEO Departures in October
A record number of dot-com CEOs quit their companies in October, 2000, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. (11/2/2000 at CyberAtlas)
Reengineering Redux
James Champy, author of the 1993 best-seller Reengineering the Corporation, may deserve some credit for changes in industry that have been attributed to the Internet. (1/28/2000 at Fortune)
Report: Web Firms Burning Through Cash
A Barron's survey of 339 Web companies indicated that 273 of them are spending more money than they take in; and 86 will run out of money in the next 12 months if they don't turn things around. (10/2/2000 at ZDNet)
Retailers, Net Firms Do The 'Click-And-Mortar' Two-Step
Yahoo and Softbank are teaming up with Kmart, America Online is working with Wal-Mart and Circuit City, and Microsoft has inked a deal with Best Buy. Net behemoths and bricks-and-mortar firms are deciding that they need each other. (12/16/1999 at The Industry Standard)
The Scariest Web Building Trends
Fredric Paul lists the 5 things he thinks will haunt every web builder in the coming year. (10/21/1999 at builder.com)
Self-Indulgence in the Internet Industry
Denise Caruso thinks that until pressure from government or consumers mounts, the online industry's transgressions will continue. (11/22/1999 at The New York Times)
Shakeout Ahead
A lot of Net companies, both high- and low-flyers, are running out of cash; when profits continue to elude them through the year 2000, they might find investors unwilling to pony up more money. (12/6/1999 at ZDNet)
Shape of Things to Come
Research scientists and the NSF are working with a 2.5 gigabit network, the "Access Grid," that will support video streaming, multi-person interactive 3D environments, and other pursuits. (9/22/1999 at BBC News)
Singing the MP3 Blues
Online music distribution was supposed to revolutionize the music industry and put money in the hands of indie artists. It seems it's just putting money in the hands of online music distributors. (12/2/1999 at Salon.com)
So Many Predict So Much
Technologists, publishers, marketers, and more make predictions for the year 2001. (12/30/2000 at Wired News)
Study: Small Businesses Pushed, Pulled Online
According to a Kelsey Group/ConStat study, 64 percent of US small businesses use the Net now, and at least 74 percent will by next year. (2/4/2000 at The Industry Standard)
Taking the Internet Out of `The Dark Ages'
The future of the Internet? Wearable wireless access; fame garnered for nothing more special than being mildly amusing and lucky; and, for better or worse, e-commerce keeps on buzzing. (12/27/1999 at Mercury Center)
A Tale of Too-Big Cities
New-media companies are growing well in urban areas, where their young employees tend to live; while industries like biotech and hardware manufacturing grow faster on the "fringes" where floor space is cheaper and more plentiful. (9/28/1999 at Wired News)
The Tally on Dot-Com Deaths
According to webmergers.com, almost 130 Internet companies have folded this year, including 22 in October, and 21 in the first half of November. (11/16/2000 at The New York Times)
Tech in 2000: The Predictions
Predictions for the new year from various Wired and Lycos staff. (12/31/1999 at Wired News)
Ten Tech Predictions for 2000
DSL will beat cable; Linux will lose its luster; every store goes online; spam legislation will move ahead; and more. (1/5/2000 at CNET.com)
Ten Things I Hate About the Web Business
What's wrong with the web business? People who put an "e" before every buzzword, techies who think they're marketers, marketers who think they're techies, and just general hype. (1/26/2000 at ClickZ Network)
Ten Trends 2000
Red Herring's 10 predictions for the year 2000, and a look at their predictions from last year. (12/7/1999 at Red Herring)
Terrorism's Toll: Attacks Promise Wide Impact on Tech Sector
Experts expect consumers and investors to spend less money on goods - including technological ones - after the terrorist attacks on the WTC and Pentagon; but demand for teleconferencing and other communications services may increase. (9/17/2001 at NewsFactor)
The Coop's 2001 Predictions
Predictions for the Net industry for 2001. Microsoft wins its appeal, more AOL/Time Warner-style media mergers, the Internet gets taxed, Nasdaq 4000, and more. (12/26/2000 at ZDNet)
The Wrong Stuff
A look back at the misguided predictions people were making in the early 1990s about the Internet and Web, and where they went wrong. (1/7/2000 at Salon.com)
The Year Ahead
Six predictions for the Net in 2000: wireless reigns; e-commerce (and stock market) backlash; MPs gets even bigger; Linux takes over small appliances; and animation gets a big boost in viewership. (1/4/2000 at Time Magazine Online)
Then, Now, Next: Five Perspectives on the Web Development Industry
Five web luminaries - Jeffrey Zeldman, Jakob Nielsen, Todd Purgason, Lynda Weinman, and David Siegel - discuss where the web is now, compared to five years ago. (6/1/2001 at Web Review)
The Threat of a Linux Generation
Programmers who don't appreciate the effects of Microsoft's anti-piracy efforts, and who want better access to the tools they use, are turning to open-source software, especially in Europe. (3/2/2002 at MSNBC)
To Infinity, And Beyond
Radio stations are seeing the benefits of the Net rush, through increased radio ad revenue. (11/8/1999 at The Industry Standard)
A Trying Season for Many Net Retailers
Details on the number of TV ads, number of site visitors, and number of buyers top Internet retailers in various categories had over the Christmas holiday 1999 season, with a little analysis thrown in. (1/2/2000 at The New York Times)
The Unacknowledged Legislators of the Digital World
Reviewer Charles C. Mann takes issue with Lawrence Lessig's book Code, a book he finds incredibly insightful and thought-provoking, but, eventually, wrong. (12/15/1999 at The Atlantic Monthly)
The Values of Code (and Code)
An interview with Lawrence Lessig on how he sees computer code - the architecture of the Internet - being overwhelmed by legislative code - architected by corporations and governments. (12/13/1999 at The Atlantic Monthly)
Was 'Free' Such a Good Idea?
Argues that had Microsoft not given away their Internet Explorer browser for free in 1995, current Internet users would be more willing to pay for web services, and Internet companies would have to demonstrate the ability to product profits. (1/4/2001 at Seattle Union Record)
The Web in 2001: Paying Customers
Jakob Nielsen's one prediction for the year 2001: the revival of the pay-for-content/services model on the web. (12/24/2000 at UseIt)
Web Users Go Shopping As Content Sites Suffer
Media Metrix's November stats show that shopping sites attracted lots more traffic as the holiday season approached, while many high-traffic content sites had flat or declining visitor totals for the month. (12/21/1999 at Excite News)
Why the Internet Won't Be Metered
An examination of current and past distribution media suggests that metering Internet access - where users pay by the page, or by the byte - won't work. (9/30/2000 at IBM)
Winners & Losers
Who "won," and who "lost," in the year 2000 Internet industry. (12/18/2000 at The Industry Standard)
Winners and Losers of the Year
Net biz winners: Shawn Fanning, big media, and "the two percent club." Net biz losers: tech blue chips, Jay Walker, and Internet consultants. (12/22/2000 at Fortune)
Wireless Craze
Nobody is making money in the wireless Internet access field yet, but once a few killer apps emerge, experts expect the sector to boom. (1/31/2000 at Upside)
Y2K Industry in Transition
Analysts predict that most companies whose revenues depend on fixing Y2K bugs will disintegrate in the year 2000; others may move into transferring legacy systems to the web, having developed deep knowledge of companies' old code while fixing bugs. (12/13/1999 at Forbes)
The Year the Hype Died
Salon's analysis of the top technology stories of the year (dot-com downturn, Napster, P2P, law vs. software, wireless), as well as some of the most overhyped. (12/22/2000 at Salon.com)
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